Pigskin and Pine Tar

The Giants sit atop the National League with a 22-13 record. Here’s some analysis to explain their success this season. These grades are based off a player’s performance in comparison to their expectation.

Buster Posey(C): B+

Much is expected of the young star catcher, and Posey has delivered for the most part. He continues to play defense at a high level, although a move to third base down the road makes sense for the Giants. His power numubers are eclipsing all of his previous year’s totals, but his average is a shade below. Look for him to bring that up and nab his third All-Star appearence.

Brandon Belt(1B): B+

Belt got off to a blazing start before tailing off before breaking his thumb in yesterday’s game. His average was below where the Giants would like it, sitting at about .260. His power numbers have impressed so far, near the top of the National League with 9 dingers. Belt was a huge presence in the lineup last season and his hot start created a fearsome trio with Posey and Michael Morse.

Brandon HIcks(2B): A-

Hicks’ journey from non-roster invitee to starting second baseman is astounding. Hicks has struck out too much, and the average is hovering below the Mendoza Line. Hicks is certainly no Marco Scutaro, but has filled in more than sufficiently so far. Hicks has given the Giants bottom of the order power and the ability to change the game with one swing of the bat. Hicks has also shown a knack for late-game clutch hitting, and his defense has outshone expectations.

Brandon Crawford(SS): B+

The third Brandon in the Giants infield is quietly having an excellent season. He is giving Andrelton Simmons a run for his money in this year’s Gold Glove Award with his remarkable fielding. Crawford has improved at the plate and is aiming for a .270 batting average. The Giants would be thrilled with that production from the 8 hole. Crawford has improved his power numbers this year as well. Some spring training tutelage from Barry Bonds has helped him improve against lefties, but he is strangely struggling against right-handers. Expect that to even itself out.

Pablo Sandoval(3B): D

There was a lot of offseason speculation about Sandoval’s weight loss and the positive improvement it would have on his play. Well, he doesn’t look that much skinnier to me. Sandoval’s defense has been solid, I suppose, but not anything to write home about. At the plate, he’s struggling to crack .180. He looks lost from both sides of the plate and it seems like every time I turn around he is hitting into a rally killing double play. If Sandoval recovers his All Star form of years past, this Giants lineup could become a nightmare for opposing pitchers. Andrew Susac is the best offensive prospect the Giants have, but is still unready for the big leagues. If Sandoval doesn’t figure it out, look for the Giants to bring up Susac (a catcher) and move Posey (a college shortstop) to third in a couple years. That leaves Kung Fu Panda as the odd man out.

Michael Morse(LF): A-

Morse came to Giants as a free agent this offseason. After slugging 31 homers in 2011, Morse has spent 2 injury riddled years bouncing around the league. Morse has been even more productive this season, mashing homers at a rate high enough to slide him into the cleapup spot and push Posey into the 3 hole. Morse has hit for a higher average than expected and his reputation as a defensive liability hasn’t come into play too much for SF.

Angel Pagan(CF): A

Many would consider Pagan the Giant’s MVP so far this season. He was huge for them last season, and the Giants slipped to a sub .500 team without him in the lineup. Pagan carries the Giants from the top of the order, and as he goes, they go.

Hunter Pence(RF): B-

Pence’s numbers are far below where the Giants would like them to be, but that’s just the way Pence is. He’s a streaky player. He ended last year on fire, and started this year miserably. He has started to pick it up, and you know that with Pence, you’re always going to get .270-.290 and 20-25 home runs. It will all even out in the end for Pence. I’m not overly concerned with his slow start.

I didn’t do pitcher grades this time because it’s so early that they’ve only had a few starts under their belts. Look for some NFL Season previews soon as the draft just wrapped up and training camp is on the way. 

 

 

 

Here’s a look at how I fared on my preseason predictions:

MVP

Preseason Prediction: Peyton Manning

Actual Winner: Peyton Manning

Before the season started, I wrote about how Manning’s new receiving threats would help him capture his 5^th MVP award. Peyton had a lot of things going his way, including improved arm strength and a pass heavy offense, but I don’t think anybody expected him to put up record setting numbers. Peyton bamboozled defenses with audibles and pre-snap shenanigans that looked silly, but helped him torch the NFL to the tune of 5,477 yards and 55 touchdowns. This was no contest. Nobody even came close to Manning’s masterful performance. Manning did all this with the weakest arm in the league. His passes, however ugly, always found their target-who was usually wide open due to a fault the coverage that Manning’s encyclopedia of football knowledge had discovered. Though he faltered at the end, Manning put up perhaps the finest passing performance we will ever see in 2013.

Super Bowl Matchup

Preseason Prediction: 49ers over Broncos

Actual Winner: Seahawks over Broncos

If Colin Kaepernick threw his last pass about a foot farther, my preseason prediction could have become a reality. Instead, it was tipped by Richard Sherman into the awaiting arms of Malcolm Smith. Game over. So it was the Seahawks, not the 49ers, who traveled to MetLife stadium to take on the high flying Denver Broncos offense. In a game that should have been a fantastic matchup-No.1 offense vs No.1 Defense-the Broncos looked lost and confused. This game looked like a matchup between Varsity and JV. Or Division 1 versus Division 3. It was like Duke going up against Southeastern North Dakota State or something. Ugh.

Comeback Player of the Year

Preseason Pick: Alex Smith

Actual Winner: Phillip Rivers

While Smith excelled in a fine bounce back season in KC, his successes pale in comparison to the year Phillip Rivers had. Rivers would have made an excellent MVP candidate if Peyton Manning hadn’t rewritten the record book this year. Coming off 2 frustrating years where he threw gobs of interceptions, Rivers returned to his Pro Bowl form with a quicker release and pinpoint accuracy. The Comeback Player of the Year award for Rivers was well deserved.

Surprise Team of the Year

Preseason Pick: Arizona Cardinals

Actual Winner: Carolina Panthers

The Cardinals came off a depressing 2012 campaign that saw them lose their last 12 games. Arizona made 2 big offseason moves: Hiring Bruce Arians as Head Coach, and trading for Quarterback Carson Palmer. Both moves worked out in the best way possible for AZ. They won 10 games, and were the only team to beat Seattle at home. Despite all their accomplishments, they were squeezed out of a playoff berth while the 8-7-1 Green Bay Packers not only received a berth, but secured home field advantage. Maybe the playoff setup needs an update. The reason I’m not giving it to the Cardinals is because of the incredible ascent of the Carolina Panthers. Coming into the season, Cam Newton was thought of as selfish, Coach Ron Rivera was thought of as too cautious, and critics were convinced that a weak running game would doom them to the NFC South cellar. Instead, Newton elevated his play, Rivera earned the nickname “Riverboat Ron” in reference to his newfound gambling instincts on 4^th down, and the Panthers possessed a fearsome defense that led them to a 12-4 record and a first round bye. Although their fantastic season was brought to an end by the 49ers in the divisional round, Rivera captured Coach of the Year honors and the Panthers have a great young nucleus to build around.

Breakout Player of the Year

Preseason Pick: Blaine Gabbert

Actual Winner: Julius Thomas

You know when a pitcher is feeling pretty good out there on the mound, and his confidence is growing, and he’s got the guy in an 0-2 count? That was me on this one. I tried to get a little too fancy-and ended up sailing one to the backstop. “Juuuuust a bit outside.” Gabbert was straight up awful and his future in the NFL doesn’t look too good. Meanwhile, Thomas, a third year tight end for the Broncos, snagged 65 passes and 12 touchdowns. He emerged as one of the league’s best red zone threats. A terrific athlete and a college basketball star, he possessed the size to box out defensive backs and the speed to blow by linebackers. He reminds me of Vernon Davis. Gabbert reminds me of JaMarcus Russel.

Worst Drop-off (Team)

Preseason Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Actual “Winner”: Atlanta Falcons

I’m convinced that the Cowboys are doomed to go 8-8 until the end of time. There will always be a game they should have lost that they pulled out (Raiders), and a game they should have won where they blow it (Packers). The Cowboys are 136-136 since 1997.

The Falcon’s fall from No. 1 seed in the playoffs to drafting in the top five caught many of us by surprise. A subpar year from Matt Ryan and the injury to Julio Jones hurt them badly, but the terrible play in the trenches and on the defensive side of the ball doomed them to a 4-12 season. It’ll be tough sledding in the NFC South next year. The Saints and the Panthers both went to the playoffs this year and the Buccaneers have a mountain of talent that was misused by Greg Schiano last year. Noted defensive specialist Lovie Smith will take over and turn the Bucs into contenders. The Falcons will be hard-pressed to return to the playoffs in 2014.

Worst Drop-off (Player)

Preseason Pick: Robert Griffin the Third

Actual “Winner”: Robert Griffin the Third

I don’t think anybody’s going to argue with me on this one. Griffin was coming off major surgery and I don’t think anyone expected him to be the player he was in 2012 at the beginning of the 2013 season. But Griffin was just plain awful. He can’t take all the blame, as his team in general was garbage, but played terribly when he was given the chance. Reports of a feud with Coach Mike Shanahan and a weird front office situation turned the whole thing into a melodrama. Griffin was eventually benched for Kirk Cousins in the team’s final three games. Griffin was probably anxious to avoid a situation like the one Derrick Rose fell into, where he was cleared to play but chose not to, and heard it from the fans. As a professional athlete, you can’t let the mutterings of the fans and media dictate your decisions, as Griffin was probably luck he didn’t suffer another injury behind that O-Line of Swiss Cheese. I wish Griffin the best, and perhaps with a full year of rehab, he will be ready to go come September. It will be a good thing for football if he is.

                                                                                                                                                                                         

I’m still stung by the 49ers collapse in the second half of the NFC Championship game and Richard Sherman’s disparaging interview still has me seething. I’ll try to stay impartial, but it’s no secret that I won’t be rooting for the Seahawks.

Seattle Seahawks(1) at Denver Broncos(1)

This is a great matchup. The NFL’s greatest passing attack against its most dominant secondary. Although Denver’s quad of fantastic receivers don’t possess a nickname quite as flashy as the “Leigon of Boom” (Seattle’s well-reknowned secondary), they are just as dangerous a threat. Demaryius Thomas against Richard Sherman will be intersting to watch. Thomas possess excellent speed, hands, and leaping ability. Sherman loves to get physical with receivers and dares referees to throw the flag. If Thomas is quick enough to get a clean release, any holding would be pretty obvious. Of course, Sherman is aided by two of the best safeties in the game, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. The matchups in the middle of the field between those two and Denver’s Wes Welker and Julius Thomas could be another pivotal point in the game. This leaves first year starter Byron Maxwell on Eric Decker. Decker has got a fantastic nose for the end zone and is a slippery tackle. These receivers have had so much success in part because they have one of the greatest QB’s of all time, Peyton Manning, throwing to them. This defense can match up phyiscally with anyone, but adjusting to the audibles that Manning calls has proven to be a tough task to all that have opposed it. Denver’s greatest weakness lies in their run defense-which, coincidentally, is the strength of Seattle’s offense. That doesn’t look like it will end well. Marshawn Lynch had success last week against a 49ers defense that is a far tougher than Denver. Seattle’s ability to adjust pre-play will play a huge factor in this game. Another thing to watch is the seperation that Denver’s receivers get against Seattle’s secondary. Sherman will be sure to attempt to get into Peyon’s head. If he’s smart, Manning’s response should be a simple “Omaha!” If the Broncos defense steps up and stops Marshawn, the momemtum could swing heavily in Denver’s favor. However, if the Seahawks offense keeps Manning on the sideline, this one’s an easy win for Seattle. 21-17 Seahawks, although I will be rooting for Manning to receive his second ring.

AFC

New England Patriots(2) at Denver Broncos(1)

This game is a really, really tough call. The Broncos were my preseason Super Bowl runner up pick, but the Patriots are on fire right now. Despite being ravaged by injuries, the Patriots remained an elite and dominant team in the league this season. They put up 43 points on the Colts without having Brady throw a single TD pass. LeGarrete Blount absolutely dominated this game, having a career day on a big stage. LeGarrete Blount? You mean the guy they traded a 7th round pick for? Yeah, him. That’s a testament to the genius of Bill Belichick and the coaching job he’s done this year. The Patriots defense played very well also, forcing 4 interceptions from Andrew Luck. The Broncos, however, steamrolled their opponents on offense this year during a record setting season. The 2013-14 Bronco’s offense ranks with the all time great offenses in history. Defense, though, has been suspect. During the regular season meeting of these teams, Brady was able to pick apart the secondary of the Broncos in the second half and overtime en route to a dramatic 24 point comeback. The Broncos will start out hot, but let the Patriots back in the game with shoddy defense. Peyton steps up and wins this game for the Broncos and sends them to the Super Bowl with a 45-42 victory.

NFC

San Francisco 49ers(5) at Seattle Seahawks(1)

The last 2 times these teams met in Seattle, the Seahawks have thoroughly controlled the game throughout. It will be a different story this time. Despite the crazy crowd noise and less than ideal conditions, the 49ers are primed to travel to New Jersey to seek a 6th Super Bowl title. Ever since the Seahawks lost at home to the Cardinals, Russel Wilson has been in a funk. He threw for just 103 yards in the Seahawks’ divisional round victory over the Saints, and the 49ers pose a far tougher task than New Orleans on the defensive side of the ball. Kaepernick and the 49ers have won 3 straight road games and 7 overall. The offense is clicking on all cylinders with Michael Crabtree back in the lineup and a healthy Vernon Davis. The Seattle defense is still great, but the loss of CB Brandon Browner hurts this team. If the 49ers want to win, they have to wrap up and gang tackle on Marshawn Lynch, who busted through the half hearted attempts of the Saints defense last weekend. Third time’s a charm for the 49ers, as they steal a 20-10 victory.