Pigskin and Pine Tar

Many of the divisions have been wrapped up by now, or have an obvious front-runner. However the 1 set of 4 teams that could still go anywhere is the AFC West. The Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos are still in the hunt with KC not far behind but struggling. The Raiders, hot for a while, have cooled off, Carson Palmer is back to his ways of old, throwing I-N-Ts. Darren McFadden, on of the best running backs in the league, is still hurt and Micheal Bush, though doing a decent job of filling in, just isn’t the same. The Chargers were down for a while because of Phillip River’s interceptions, but I think his turnaround started with that big game against the terrible Jaguars. We have all learned to never count the Broncos out of anything, no matter what, because just when you need it, Tebow Time is going to show up. Once the dregs of the division, they now lead it. The Chiefs are an obvious a significant step behind, but not impossibly far back. Kyle Orton will need to turn things around quick, but going with him is the right move, because even the horrid Patriots secondary managed to stop him. Some wild predictions: The Broncos ride Tebow Time to the Super Bowl and beyond, because if they can keep it close, the game is theirs. All these repeated comebacks have got to put a little fear in defenders in the final 2 minutes when they are up by less than 2 touchdowns.
Another crazy thought: Carson Palmer will never be the Carson Palmer of 2005-2007. The interceptions will just keep piling up and the Raiders will be sorry they spent so much on him. They’ll turn to Terrelle Pyror next year and he will be the second coming of Cam Newton.
For thirds: The Chiefs will continue to sink and wind up with a high pick in next year’s draft, and will spend it on one of the many great college football quarterbacks to serve as Cassel’s successor (most likely Matt Barkley). With the young and great receiving core of Jon Baldwin, Steve Breaston, and Dwayne Bowe,combined with getting Jamaal Charles back, the Chiefs will be division champions for many years, as Barkley’s upside outweighs Cassel’s and I see him ending his career the way he started it: As a reliable backup who would start on most teams. If you noticed I haven’t said anything about the Chargers in these comments, well that’s beacause I don’t think there’s anything special about them. They’re a 9-7 team with a great QB (Rivers will bounce back, I think) and not much else.

The Patriots could fall into the same trap as the Colts. Over the past decade, the AFC rivals have been remarkably similar. Great QB, veteran possesion receiver, running backs that are mediocre and take a back role. The Colts are so horrible this year because, with all those late first round picks thanks to winning seasons by Manning, they could never stockpile more star talent. I see the Patriots falling in the same trap. They lost Brady two seasons ago, but Matt Cassel was still a very good quarterback who earned himself a starting job in Kansas City with that performance. They also had Randy Moss, the best wide receiver in football, and a decent defense. I believe Brian Hoyer and  Ryan Mallet are far superior to Curtis Painter and Dan Orlosvky. No personal knock on either of them, as the both had the talent to make it to the NFL, but it wouldn’t take much to be better than those two. But still, Deion Branch is old, Wes Welker would fall into the same trap as Reggie Wayne, a great receiver with a horrid quarterback dragging him down. Shane Vereen has great potential, but Danny Woodhead, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis (despite his awesome name) are worse or equal to Joseph Addai, Donald Brown, and Delone Carter. In baseball, the superpowers fall and rise, but mostly wax and wane slowly, so you don’t notice it at first. Look at the Astros. They went to the World Series in ’05, but 6 years later they have the worst record in the league. But in Football, seemingly indestructable monoliths have their legs cut out from underneath them and perpetual cellar-dwellars can be transformed with 1 great Quarterback coming in on a 1st round pick or a great coach inspiring the players and righting the ship. I mean, how could the Colts stink? They have the best Quarterback in the game, a certain Hall of Famer who is one of the greatest of all time and has the record for most MVP awards! Oh, wait. He’s hurt. The Colts just fell off a cliff, and the 49ers have risen to the second best record in the league. people said, How are they going to win with Alex Smith? He’s a bust! Frank Gore’s injury prone, and their only decent player is Patrick Willis! But now? With Jim Harbaugh? Smith’s efficient, he’s one of the TOP 10 passers in the NFC, Frank Gore is great, and Navorro Bowman (who no one had heard about before this season) is almost as good as Willis. The Pats are 8-3, maybe the best team in the AFC, and all because of one man: Tom Brady. The Colts may have saved their hide by expsoing them to what happens when you lose your Hall of Fame QB. It’s not pretty.

The way teams like the Raiders and Niners dug themselves into holes, 4 and 6 years ago, was a common mistake. They stunk, to begin. So, they went with the obvious solution: Draft a franchise QB. But I don’t think that’s the way to do it. There will be more franchise QBs down the road, so just wait. Build a good team first. With a good, or even decent team, the fans are okay with the future superstar sitting on the bench as he learns the playbook at his own pace.  Draft some good wide receivers, so that when your quarterback is ready, he has some dependable, experienced wideouts to throw to. Also, build a good defense so that he doesn’t have pressure to put up monster numbers. The titans are executing this perfectly. They have Jake Locker, the 8th overall pick this year, playing behind a solid veteran, Matt Hasselback. Aaron Rodgers is now the best QB in the nation after learning behind Brett Favre. I already mentioned this in the blog post about Ponder, but Chris Johnson can also help out Locker. When he is ready to take the reins, two or three years down the road, he’ll already have the ingredients for a great team, and that is a recipe for sucess. Already, this year, yesterday, when Hasselback sprained his elbow, Locker came in and was sucessful. Even with Vince Young, the 3rd overall pick in 2006, a rookie Pro Bowler, is now a backup in Philedalphia. He got pushed into a starting role (Because Billy Volek was definatley not the answer), and was reasonably sucessful, but down the road, with the Titans lack of star power, they flopped. Now, they’re getting it right on the second try.